فضيحة الحسابات الزائفة تدخل ويلز فارجو إلى منطقة الهبوط

تصنيف وسطاء الفوركس 2020:
  • FinMaxFX
    FinMaxFX

    أفضل وسيط فوركس لعام 2020!
    الخيار الأمثل للمبتدئين!
    تدريب مجاني!
    حساب تجريبي مجاني!
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على مدى السنوات الثلاث الماضية، قامت شركة ولز فارجو آند كومباني (بورصة نيويورك: و إف سي) للخدمات المصرفية والمالية القابضة، بالاحتفاظ بالمركز الأول كأثر بنك قيمة في الولايات المتحدة. ولدى الشركة قيمة سوقية تبلغ نحو 300 مليار دولار مقابل 235 مليار دولار وهي القيمة السوقية لبنك جيه بى مورجان تشيس. وقد أعطى السوق علاوة لشركة ولز فارجو بسبب قدرتها على توليد عائدات أعلى على الأصول. غير أن الفضيحة التي اندلعت الأسبوع الماضي جعلت البنك يخسر مركزه باعتباره أكثر البنوك الأمريكية قيمة. ولا داعي للقول أن التطورات التي سيتم شرحها بالتفصيل أدناه ستسبب قريباُ في انخفاض سعر الأسهم. وقد أنهى سعر السهم جلسة تعاملات يوم الجمعة عند حوالي 45.72 مليار دولار أمريكي بانخفاض قدره 0.72 دولار أو 1.56% من الجلسة السابقة

في الربع المنتهى في شهر يونيو 2020، سجلت البنك إيرادات بلغت 22.16 مليار دولار والتي كانت أقل من توقعات طومسون رويتيرز بمبلغ 22.17 مليار دولار. أما في العام الماضي فقد حقق البنك إيرادات بلغات 21.318 مليار دولار

وقد حقق البنك التي يتخذ من سان فرانسيسكو، كاليفورنيا مقراً له صافي أرباح الفوائد في الربع الثاني بلغت 11.733 مليار دولار، مقارنة ب 11.270 مليار دولار خلال الفترة المماثلة من عام 2020. خلال الربع الثاني، ازداد مخصص خسائر الائتمان ليصل إلى 1.074 مليار دولار من 300 مليون دولار في الربع المناظر من العام 2020

وشهد صافي الدخل في الربع الثاني انخفاضا طفيفا ليصل إلى 5.6 مليار دولار أو 1.01 دولار لكل سهم، من 5.7 مليار دولار أو 1.03 دولار للسهم في الربع الثاني من عام 2020. وقد تساوت ربحية السهم في الربع الثاني مع تقديرات وول ستريت

في الاسبوع الاول من شهر سبتمبر، وجدت سي إف بي بي، إحدى الشركات الاستشارية الموظفة من قبل ويلز فارجو، أن موظفي البنك لديهم حسابات ودائع مفتوحة بمبلغ 1.5 مليون دولار دون إذن من أي نوع من عملائه. وتم استخدام عناوين بريد إلكترونية زائفة وأرقام سرية زائفة لتسجيل العملاء في الخدمات البنكية عبر الانترنت. كما وجدت الشركة الاستشارية أن هناك 565,443 طلب مزيف لبطاقات ائتمان قدمت دون موافقة العملاء. وحوالي 14,000 حساب قد تكبد رسوم قدرها 400 ألف دولار. وقد تم تغريم البنك 185 مليون دولار من قبل المنظمين في الولايات المتحدة

وعقب هذا التقرير، خسر البنك حوالي 65 مليار دولار أمريكي من قيمته السوقية في وقت قصير. وارين بفيت، المستثمر الأسطوري الذى يمتلك نحو 10% من أسهم البنك، خسر 1.4 مليار دولار من ثروته بمجرد أن تصدرت الأخبار العناوين الرئيسية. وفى نهاية المطاف، فقد مهد الانخفاض الطريق معبدا لبنك جيه بى مورجان تشيس. ليصبح أكثر البنوك قيمة في الولايات المتحدة. ومن المتوقع أن يقوم بنك ويلز فارجو بتخفيض توقعاته لأرباح السنة المالية 2020 عقب الفضيحة. ولا مراء في أنها خسارة كبيرة في السمعة ومن المتوقع ان تنخفض الأسهم أكثر

كان يتم تداول سعر السهم دون متوسط الخمسين يوم المتحرك معظم عام 2020. ومما يدعو إلى السخرية، ظلت السهم أيضاً بين 47 و51. وقد دخل مؤشر القوة النسبية منطقة الهبوط. وبالتالي، نتوقع من الأنباء السلبية ستساعد باشتعال الانخفاض. الدعم الرئيسي التالي يقع عند 42

متداول الخيارات الثنائية يمكنه التكهن بالانخفاض المتوقع في سعر السهم عن طريق شراء خيار بيع لمسة واحدة. ويجب أن يكون سعر التنفيذ 42 دولار أو أعلى وتاريخ الانتهاء في الأسبوع الثاني من شهر أكتوبر

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Forex

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Wednesday, May 6th

1. Trump ramps up reopening talk as administration eyes closing down its virus task force

تصنيف وسطاء الفوركس 2020:
  • FinMaxFX
    FinMaxFX

    أفضل وسيط فوركس لعام 2020!
    الخيار الأمثل للمبتدئين!
    تدريب مجاني!
    حساب تجريبي مجاني!
    مكافأة على التسجيل!

The White House is considering phasing out its Covid-19 task force, according to its head, Vice President Mike Pence.

The administration wants to shift to a different approach of handling the pandemic, now that its first wave appears to be subsiding.

President Donald Trump appeared to accept the risk of subsequent waves of infection on Tuesday, saying of his push to reopen the economy: ““Will some people be affected? Yes. Will some people be affected badly? Yes. But we have to get our country open and we have to get it open soon.”

Data from Europe suggest that those countries that have relaxed their lockdown requirements have generally seen a rise in new infections since.

2. Private payrolls, EIA inventories data due

Market optimism faces two more stiff challenges, with the release of ADP’s monthly report on private payrolls and the government’s report on U.S. oil stockpiles. Those data come ahead of weekly jobless claims data on Thursday and the official government labor market report on Friday.

Analysts polled by Investing.com expect the private sector to have shed over 20 million jobs in April due to statewide lockdown measures.

The EIA inventory data are expected to show a rise of 7.76 million barrels in crude stocks, a little less than the 8.4 million-barrel increase reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday. Attention will also be given to the rise in stocks at the Cushing hub (the API said 2.7 million barrels, more than indicated in an early report by consultancy Genscape), which faces looming capacity limitations. Traders will also be looking for evidence of a pickup in gasoline demand.

3. Stocks set to open higher

U.S. stock markets are set to open higher again, as investors continue to bet that the U.S. economy can reopen without triggering another rise in infections and fresh lockdowns.

By 6:30 AM ET (1030 GMT), the Dow Jones 30 Futures contract was up 211 points, or 0.9%, while the S&P 500 Futures was up 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 contract was up 0.8%.

Investors are having to look through some unrelentingly bleak corporate updates. In addition to Disney, which reported late on Tuesday (see below), unlisted AirBnb said it will cut 25% of its workforce, while Reuters reported that the U.S. airline industry is burning through $10 billion a month, citing draft congressional testimony from the Airlines 4 America industry group.

4. Grim forecasts for the euro zone; Germany to announce further reopening measures

The eurozone economy will shrink by 7.7% this year, the European Commission said in its spring economic forecasts. It also said that inflation will drop to 0.2%, as discretionary spending withers against a backdrop of reduced income.

The Commission said that the currency union’s southern periphery – Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal – will be the hardest hit by the pandemic, something likely to sustain the north-south tension illustrated on Tuesday by Germany’s Constitutional Court ruling on the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program. Eurozone sovereign yield spreads drifted a little wider on the news, while the euro fell two a two-week low of $1.0782.

The forecasts came after data showing the biggest ever drop in eurozone retail sales in March, and the sharpest monthly drop in German factory orders in at least 30 years.

On the brighter side, Germany is expected to announce a further easing of lockdown measures including, possibly, the resumption of its national soccer league.

5. Disney earnings slump

Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) suspended its dividend after saying the Covid-19 pandemic had driven net profit down by over 90% in its fiscal second quarter, which ran through March.

The entertainment giant was hit not only by the closure of its theme parks but also by a sharp drop in box office receipts and in advertising at its TV stations. The company expects worse for the current quarter, given that the pandemic impacts only started to become evident relatively late in the past one.

One bright spot in an otherwise gloomy report was the spread of Disney+. The company said it now has 54.5 million subscribers. While that’s less than one-third of Netflix’s, it still makes Disney’s service the second-most popular service around.

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Tuesday, May 5th

1. German court rules ECB QE partially unlawful

Germany’s top court threatened to stop German participation in the European Central Bank’s government bond-buying, ruling that that parts of its 2020 quantitative easing program went beyond its competence.

The ruling doesn’t affect the 750-billion-euro ($815 billion) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program directly, but heavily implies that it would find that program unconstitutional, given that the ECB has abandoned its earlier restrictions on how much it can buy of an individual government’s debt.

While the court dismissed a suit to have the program declared illegal, its ruling was shot through with arguments sympathetic to the plaintiffs, threatening to revive German popular resentment of ECB policy, which had become more conciliatory since the Covid-19 pandemic erupted.

The euro and STOXX 600 weakened in response.

2. FEMA reportedly sees big rise in infections

The Federal Emergency Management Agency predicts that the U.S. death toll from Covid-19 will rise to 3,000 a day and an eight-fold rise in new infections to 200,000 a day by June 1, the NYT reported, citing an internal FEMA study.

The document, which is only one of a number of studies being considered by the federal government, highlights the risks of reopening the economy prematurely, the NYT said.

Separately, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington has revised its forecasts for the trajectory of the disease and now estimates there will be nearly 135,000 U.S deaths by the beginning of August, more than twice what it forecast in April.

3. Stocks set to open higher

U.S. stock markets are set to open higher, extending gains made on Monday amid signs that the acute imbalance in the global oil market is correcting itself.

By 6:30 AM ET (1030 GMT), the Dow Jones 30 Futures contract was up 227 points, or 1.0%, while the S&P 500 Futures contract was up 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 contract was up 1.0%.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of developed market currencies, was up 0.3%, thanks largely to gains against the euro. It was mixed against emerging market currencies, against a backdrop of concern that Argentina will default on its sovereign debt later in the month. That would be the country’s ninth default.

4. Disney, games makers lead earnings roster

Walt Disney leads Tuesday’s earnings roster. Its report will show to what extent the new income stream from Disney+ can offset the massive losses in revenue from closed theme parks, suspended cruises and cancelled advertising against live sports on ESPN.

Long-time Disney bull Michael Nathanson of MoffattNathanson downgraded his recommendation for the stock to neutral on Monday, saying that the market underestimated the long-term threat to the key parks business from the coronavirus.

Also reporting Tuesday are games publishers Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard, two stocks expected to gain from lockdown orders across the globe that have pushed more consumers towards video games.

Beyond Meat will also update after the closing bell, at a time when the pandemic is threatening the supply chain of traditional meat companies.

5. Oil extends rally; API data eyed

Crude oil prices extended a vigorous rebound amid signs that shut-ins at U.S. producers are easing the short-term imbalance between supply and demand.

By 6:30 AM ET, U.S. crude futures were up 10.3% at $22.49 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent was up 7.7% at $29.30, its highest in three weeks.

Futures had rallied on Monday after a report by data company Genscape indicated that inventories at the national hub at Cushing, Oklahoma had risen by only 1.8 million barrels last week. If confirmed by American Petroleum Institute data later Tuesday and government data on Wednesday, that would represent a sharp drop in stockbuilding from the trend of recent weeks.

Reports from individual companies continue to add to evidence of the taps being turned off. Centennial Resource Development, Parsley Energy (NYSE:PE) and Diamondback (NASDAQ:FANG) all announced sharp cuts in production for the current quarter in their updates on Monday, adding to bigger cuts announced by Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) on Friday.

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Tuesday, May 5th
34

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Monday, May 4th

1. Trump, Pompeo lash out at China as death toll rises

U.S. President Donald Trump revived the prospect of further trade measures against China to punish it for perceived shortcomings in its handling of the Covid-19 outbreak. He also threatened to rip up last year’s trade deal with China if it failed to honor its commitment to buy U.S. goods in the promised volumes.

“They took advantage of our country. Now they have to buy and, if they don’t buy, we will terminate the deal,” Trump said in a virtual town hall meeting with Fox (NASDAQ:FOX) News.

Both Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (the latter talking to ABC) repeated accusations that the virus had originated in a laboratory in Wuhan. Neither presented fresh evidence to support the claim, which China denies.

2. Springtime in Europe (Russia not included)

Lockdowns in Europe eased further as the death toll from the Covid-19 virus fell to its lowest in two months in most of the region’s biggest economies.

Italy, the worst-hit country, reopened its parks and restaurants and lifted a ban on personal visits. Spain also eased its lockdowns while German churches reopened on a weekend when the government also announced plans to reopen playgrounds and other outdoor spaces.

The outlier to the trend in Europe is Russia, where the number of new infections continued to rise sharply at the weekend. The Russian ruble, which is stull laboring under the impact of low oil prices, fell to its lowest against the dollar in nearly two weeks.

3. Stocks set to open lower; dollar strengthens

U.S. stocks are set to open lower under the impact of the administration’s comments on China at the weekend, coupled with Trump’s further admission that the U.S. death toll could reach 100,000.

By 6:30 AM ET (1030 GMT), the Dow Jones 30 Futures contract was down 240 points, or 1.0%, extending losses after the abrupt sell-off on Friday. The S&P 500 Futures contract was down 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 futures contract was down 0.7%..

The dollar, meanwhile, weakened against the yen but rose against higher-yielding currencies. The dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of developed market currencies rose 0.4% to 99.42. Gold futures rose 1.1% to $1,718.95 an ounce while Treasury yields fell and European sovereign spreads widened, amid concern over a German court ruling on Tuesday on the legality of the ECB’s bond purchases.

4. Buffett dumps airline stocks

Legendary investor Warren Buffett backed the U.S. and world economy to avoid a worst-case scenarios outlined by others earlier in the year as the Covid-19 pandemic erupted. He cited “the American magic”.

At the annual meeting of his company Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa), Buffett said it had sold all its airline stock in the last quarter, fearful that the long-term outlook for the industry has changed for the worse. American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) and Southwest (NYSE:LUV) were both down over 7% in premarket trade on the comments, while United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) and Delta (NYSE:DAL) were both down over 9%.

Buffett also had to defend himself against criticism for a lack of deal-making, despite a wholesale sell-off in markets.

“We haven’t seen anything attractive,” Buffett said. Berkshire has been stung by a couple of big bets that have turned sour in recent years, notably its acquisition of Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) with Brazil’s 3G, and its support for Occidental (NYSE:OXY) Petroleum’s debt-funded acquisition of Anadarko last year.

5. Tyson Foods, Oaktree lead earnings roster

Earnings season resumes on Monday with Oaktree Capital, the investment firm of Buffett’s fellow investment guru Howard Marks.

Other updates of interest will include Tyson Foods, the closure of whose meat plants led to presidential intervention last week to keep them open, and Sprint, ahead of its planned merger with T-Mobile later this year. There are also earnings due from insurance giant AIG (NYSE:AIG) and Chinese Netflix-wannabe IQIYI, whose accounting practices were recently attacked by short seller Muddy Waters (NYSE:WAT) Research.

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Monday, May 4th

1. Trump, Pompeo lash out at China as death toll rises

U.S. President Donald Trump revived the prospect of further trade measures against China to punish it for perceived shortcomings in its handling of the Covid-19 outbreak. He also threatened to rip up last year’s trade deal with China if it failed to honor its commitment to buy U.S. goods in the promised volumes.

“They took advantage of our country. Now they have to buy and, if they don’t buy, we will terminate the deal,” Trump said in a virtual town hall meeting with Fox (NASDAQ:FOX) News.

Both Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (the latter talking to ABC) repeated accusations that the virus had originated in a laboratory in Wuhan. Neither presented fresh evidence to support the claim, which China denies.

2. Springtime in Europe (Russia not included)

Lockdowns in Europe eased further as the death toll from the Covid-19 virus fell to its lowest in two months in most of the region’s biggest economies.

Italy, the worst-hit country, reopened its parks and restaurants and lifted a ban on personal visits. Spain also eased its lockdowns while German churches reopened on a weekend when the government also announced plans to reopen playgrounds and other outdoor spaces.

The outlier to the trend in Europe is Russia, where the number of new infections continued to rise sharply at the weekend. The Russian ruble, which is stull laboring under the impact of low oil prices, fell to its lowest against the dollar in nearly two weeks.

3. Stocks set to open lower; dollar strengthens

U.S. stocks are set to open lower under the impact of the administration’s comments on China at the weekend, coupled with Trump’s further admission that the U.S. death toll could reach 100,000.

By 6:30 AM ET (1030 GMT), the Dow Jones 30 Futures contract was down 240 points, or 1.0%, extending losses after the abrupt sell-off on Friday. The S&P 500 Futures contract was down 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 futures contract was down 0.7%..

The dollar, meanwhile, weakened against the yen but rose against higher-yielding currencies. The dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of developed market currencies rose 0.4% to 99.42. Gold futures rose 1.1% to $1,718.95 an ounce while Treasury yields fell and European sovereign spreads widened, amid concern over a German court ruling on Tuesday on the legality of the ECB’s bond purchases.

4. Buffett dumps airline stocks

Legendary investor Warren Buffett backed the U.S. and world economy to avoid a worst-case scenarios outlined by others earlier in the year as the Covid-19 pandemic erupted. He cited “the American magic”.

At the annual meeting of his company Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa), Buffett said it had sold all its airline stock in the last quarter, fearful that the long-term outlook for the industry has changed for the worse. American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) and Southwest (NYSE:LUV) were both down over 7% in premarket trade on the comments, while United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) and Delta (NYSE:DAL) were both down over 9%.

Buffett also had to defend himself against criticism for a lack of deal-making, despite a wholesale sell-off in markets.

“We haven’t seen anything attractive,” Buffett said. Berkshire has been stung by a couple of big bets that have turned sour in recent years, notably its acquisition of Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) with Brazil’s 3G, and its support for Occidental (NYSE:OXY) Petroleum’s debt-funded acquisition of Anadarko last year.

5. Tyson Foods, Oaktree lead earnings roster

Earnings season resumes on Monday with Oaktree Capital, the investment firm of Buffett’s fellow investment guru Howard Marks.

Other updates of interest will include Tyson Foods, the closure of whose meat plants led to presidential intervention last week to keep them open, and Sprint, ahead of its planned merger with T-Mobile later this year. There are also earnings due from insurance giant AIG (NYSE:AIG) and Chinese Netflix-wannabe IQIYI, whose accounting practices were recently attacked by short seller Muddy Waters (NYSE:WAT) Research.

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Friday, May 1st

1. Tech disappoints; Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) shareholders should “take a seat”

It’s not all shiny and bright in Silicon Valley, as a couple of tech giants disappointed the market after the bell on Thursday.

Amazon stock slumped almost 5% in after-hours trade after stating it would spend its entire second-quarter profit, seen at around $4 billion, on Covid-19 related expenses.

“If you’re a shareowner in Amazon, you may want to take a seat, because we’re not thinking small,” said Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said in a statement explaining the hefty jump in expenses.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock fell 2.6% after hours despite reporting a slight uptick in revenue for its latest quarter as its services business picked up the slack caused by the coronavirus denting iPhone sales in China.

However, Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook pointed to an uncertain future, saying it was impossible to forecast overall results for the current quarter because of uncertainty created by the virus.

This was the first time Apple omitted an earnings forecast in more than a decade.

Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) had offered up stellar earnings earlier this week.

2. Manufacturers have little to smile about

The latest dismal economic number is likely to come Friday from the Institute of Supply Management, which will issue its April purchasing managers’ index at 10:00 AM ET (1400 GMT).

The ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to have dropped to 36.9 last month from 49.1 in March, according to economists’ forecasts compiled by Investing.com, rapidly approaching the record low below 30 in 1980.

Earlier, the British equivalent saw its manufacturers suffering the biggest fall in output and orders for at least three decades in April.

April’s final IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to a record-low 32.6 from March’s 47.8, broadly in line with the earlier flash estimate of 32.9 released on April 23.

3. Stocks set to open lower; Trump hints at another trade war

U.S. stock markets are set to open lower, coming off the best April for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 in 82 years. Threatening rhetoric from President Donald Trump about another trade war with China will likely weigh on the market ahead of the release of ISM manufacturing PMI data at 10:00 AM ET.

Late Thursday Trump made it clear that his concerns about China’s role in the origin and spread of the coronavirus were taking priority for now over his efforts to build on an initial trade agreement with Beijing.

By 6:30 AM ET (1030 GMT), the Dow Jones 30 Futures contract was down 414 points or 1.7%, while the S&P 500 Futures contract was 53 points or 1.8% lower and the Nasdaq 100 futures contract was down 207 points or 2.3%.

In Asia, with many markets closed, the benchmark Nikkei index fell 2.8%, while Australian shares fell 5%, their most in five weeks.

In Europe, most markets are closed for a May 1 public holiday, but the FTSE 100 in London dropped over 2%.

4. Pain of airlines plain to see

Ryanair (LON:RYA)announced Friday it would ground more than 99% of its flights until July and said it had begun negotiations with Boeing (NYSE:BA) about cutting the number of aircraft deliveries over the next 24 months.

Europe’s largest low-cost carrier said it would take at least two years for passenger demand to return to normal, which could result in the loss of up to 3,000 mainly pilot and cabin crew jobs.

Lufthansa (DE:LHAG) is negotiating a 10 billion euro ($10.98 billion) bailout that would result in Germany taking a 25.1% stake in the airline, according to reports Friday.

Meanwhile, the fate of Norwegian Air Shuttle (OL:NWC) was in the balance on Friday after a deadline passed overnight for bondholders to vote on a rescue package for the transatlantic budget airline.

Late Thursday, United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) announced a loss of $1.7 billion in the first quarter, as it attempted to manage “the most disruptive global crisis in the history of aviation.”

5. U.S. oil giants in the spotlight

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX), the two largest U.S. oil producers, are set to report first quarter earnings Friday.

Exxon had already been facing quizzical glances before Covid-19 hit, because of its high capital expenditure at a time when most oil companies were cutting back. It is set to report earnings of 4 cents per share, down from 55 cents per share in the year-ago period, on revenue of about $54.8 billion, and has to explain how it can successfully navigate these tricky waters while maintaining its healthy dividend.

Chevron looks to be in a stronger position. It is set to report earnings of 65 cents per share on $29.80 billion in revenue, and has already announced that it would be halting share buybacks and lowering its capital spending by 20%.

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Thursday, April 30th

1. Tech to the Rescue

Silicon Valley powerhouses continued to churn out stronger-than-expected results after the bell on Wednesday.

Facebook stock surged 8% after its quarterly update showed advertising spending stabilized in April, albeit at lower rates, as gaming and other stay-at-home-focused companies took advantage of a bump in user face time.

Microsoft also reported a 15% rise in sales and a net profit of $10.75 billion, driven largely by burgeoning demand for its Azure cloud computing service.

Tesla also reported a surprise profit of $1.24 a share, compared with forecasts for a loss of 28c, pushing its shares up 8%. However, the results were more notable for CEO Elon Musk’s tirade against lockdown measures, which threaten to keep the company’s only U.S. factory closed through May. The company didn’t reiterate its full-year guidance

Amazon and Apple round off the earnings season for megacaps after the close.

2. ECB meets as data show Covid-19 toll on Europe

It’s Europe’s turn to dish out the dismal economic data, as the European Central Bank hunkers down for its regular policy meeting. Analysts say an expansion of the ECB’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program – the 750 billion-euro scheme ($815 billion) it announced in March – is possible.

The euro zone economy contracted by 3.8% quarter-on-quarter, according to Eurostat data. That’s a much bigger decline than the U.S. equivalent (which was annualized, rather than QoQ), because eurozone countries were quicker to impose lockdown measures.

France’s GDP fell 5.8%, while Spain’s fell 5.2% – both much bigger declines than expected. Italy’s fell 4.7%.

Meanwhile, Germany’s jobless figures rose by a comparatively modest 373,000. That’s because German firms rushed to avail themselves of a government wage subsidy program. Over 10 million workers were enrolled in the so-called Kurzarbeit scheme in April – although not all will have actually used it, said Oxford Economics’ Oliver Rakau.

3. Stocks set to open mixed; Jobless claims, McDonald’s, Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA)’s earnings eyed

U.S. stock markets are set to open mixed, after solid gains on Wednesday in response to some reassuring rhetoric from the Federal Reserve and signs of progress in finding a drug capable of treating the Covid-19 virus. The mood will be tested by the release of initial jobless claims data at 8:30 AM ET.

By 6:30 AM ET (1030 GMT), the Dow Jones 30 Futures contract was up 42 points or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 Futures contract was flat and the Nasdaq 100 futures contract was up 0.3%.

In addition to the tech giants, there’ll be earnings reports before the opening from Visa, McDonald’s, Comcast, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) COP), Kraft Heinz and Altria , among others.

4. Shell’s historic day

Royal Dutch Shell (AS:RDSa) cut its quarterly dividend to 16c a share from 47c – the first time since the Second World War that it’s taken such a step. The move implicitly accepts that the company won’t be able to generate the kind of returns in future that its investors have become used to.

Shell CEO Ben van Beurden said the cut was a “resetting” of dividend policy. The company reported a 46% drop in underlying profit and expects worse to come, as it’s forced to lower production.

The move raises questions for other ‘supermajors’, all of whom have so far resisted taking the same step. Shell had already suspended its share buyback program.

5. Renewables the bright spot in energy outlook

Global energy demand is set to contract by 6% this year as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the International Energy Agency said.

Oil demand is expected to drop by some 9% on average, pushing consumption down to an eight-year low. Coal and gas demand are also likely to be hit by a similar magnitude.

The bright spot, the IEA said, is that global carbon dioxide emissions will also likely fall by 8%, while renewable electricity will be the only source of energy to show growth in both supply and demand.

U.S. crude futures rose another 17.5% to $17.66 a barrel as the market priced in an easing of the near-term glut, while Brent futures rose 9.2% to $26.45 a barrel.

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Wednesday, April 29th

1. Trump orders meat plants to stay open

President Donald Trump signed an executive order forcing meat processing plants to continue operating, so as to guarantee food supply.

The order was criticized by the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union, which noted that 20 meatpacking and processing workers have died from coronavirus, and at least 6,500 have been affected. At least 22 plants processing various meats have been closed at some stage due to the disease.

The tension between health and economic policy continues to play out unevenly across the world. In the U.S., Tennessee and Wisconsin on Wednesday will become the latest states to allow certain smaller businesses to reopen.

Overnight, China eased border restrictions on its citizens, while Poland became the latest European state to relax its lockdown. On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron had bowed to pressure from businesses to announce his country’s lockdown would be mostly lifted on May 11, despite stern warnings of renewed community spread.

2. Fed meeting ends, Powell press conference, GDP data eyed.

The Federal Reserve will conclude a two-day policy meeting at 2 PM ET. No changes to interest rates are expected, given previous statements largely rejecting the notion of negative rates. However, the further tweaks to the central bank’s liquidity operations and quantitative easing program are not ruled out, and the market will also respond to Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments at his press conference at 2:30 PM.

Powell will be able to comment on the first reading for first-quarter GDP, which is expected to have contracted by an annualized 4%, the steepest drop since 2009. The number is highly likely to be revised in subsequent readings and will in any case be dwarfed by the contraction expected for the second quarter.

3. Stocks set to open higher

U.S. stocks are set to open higher after losing momentum late on Tuesday’s session.

By 6:30 AM ET (1030 GMT), the Dow Jones 30 Futures contract was up 102 points or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 Futures contract was up 0.6% and the Nasdaq 100 futures contract was up 0.9%.

The Nasdaq (NASDAQ:NDAQ) contract in particular was supported by a well-received quarterly update from Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) after the closing bell on Tuesday, which showed its Internet advertising business holding up well.

European and Asian markets overnight had struggled with some mixed reports from the likes of Samsung (KS:005930) and Airbus but were still mostly higher. U.S. markets face early tests of strength from Boeing (NYSE:BA) and General Electric (NYSE:GE), both of which are due to report before the open.

4. Tech earnings to flood in

It’s another heavy day for tech earnings, with Microsoft, Facebook and Qualcomm all set to report after the bell.

However, the spotlight is likely to be hogged by Tesla, whose stock has whipsawed this week on the back of reports that it is trying to reopen its Fremont factory, even though lockdown restrictions are still being widely applied in California.

Tesla rivals Daimler (OTC:DDAIF), Volkswagen (DE:VOWG_p) and Nissan (OTC:NSANY) all issued updates of varying doom and gloom overnight, although the two German companies’ stocks both rose on indications that they both expect to stay profitable at an operating level this year.

5. Oil recovers; Inventory data due

Crude oil prices extended their recovery after the American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. oil stocks rose fractionally less than expected last week.

The API’s estimate of a 10 million-barrel build in crude stocks was slightly less than the 10.6 million expected from today’s data from the government, which are due at 10:30 AM ET.

By 6:30 AM ET, the June contract for West Texas Intermediate was up 13% at $13.94 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent was up 2.7% at $23.36 a barrel, as reports continued to dribble in of OPEC countries reining in output, in line with the recent deal to cut supply.

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Tuesday, April 28th

1. Oil tumbles on USO’s repositioning

Crude oil prices tumbled again as the exchange-traded fund that concentrates much retail speculative interest in crude was forced to adjust its positioning by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

The United States Oil Fund, LP (NYSE:USO) said in an SEC filing on Monday that its positions in the first three contracts of the U.S. crude futures strip had been capped, and that it would consequently move its exposure further out along the strip.

As a result, the spread between the front-month June contract (down over 7% at $11.88 a barrel) and the July contract was widened to over $7 a barrel, while the December contract likewise trades some $9 above July.

The international benchmark Brent was also pressured by the arbitrage. It dipped briefly below $20 before rebounding vigorously to $23.48 by 6:30 AM ET (1030 GMT).

2. Europe’s banks post big jump in provisions

Europe’s biggest banks put out a largely negative set of results for the first quarter, with loan loss provisions leaping at both HSBC (NYSE:HSBC) and Santander (MC:SAN).

HSBC, whose net profit halved due to it booking $3 billion of provision, also said it would put its plan to cut 35,000 jobs on hold due to the pandemic in an expensive gesture of social solidarity. Santander posted 1.6 billion euros of provisions as profit fell 82%, due largely to its U.K. unit, and the reduced value of its operations in Mexico and Brazil.

The big outlier was Swiss bank UBS (NYSE:UBS), whose net profit rose by 40% year-on-year as the pandemic triggered exceptional levels of activity in its wealth management division, the world’s largest.

3. Stocks set to open higher as more states eye reopening

U.S. stock markets are set to open higher, extending Monday’s gains after Texas and Ohio became the latest states to announce dates for gradually easing lockdown.

By 6:30 AM ET (1030 GMT), the Dow Jones 30 futures contract was up 301 points, or 1.3%, while the S&P 500 futures contract and the Nasdaq 100 contract were both up 1.1%.

The dollar was lower across the board as risk appetite improved. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of developed market currencies, was down 0.5% at 99.45, while gold futures drifted slightly lower.

4. Earnings galore – Alphabet, Ford, Starbucks and more

It’s a huge day for corporate earnings, with Alphabet the biggest company to report – and also one of the last, coming after the closing bell.

Pepsico (NASDAQ:PEP) has already got the ball rolling with a surprise 4% drop in first-quarter earnings and the now familiar routine of dropping guidance for the year. Industrial heavyweights Caterpillar and 3M are among those next up, as are UPS (NYSE:UPS) and pharma giants Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Merck (NYSE:MRK).

Joining Alphabet after the bell are Starbucks, Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ), Ford Motor (NYSE:F) and Brazilian mining giant Vale (NYSE:VALE).

In Europe overnight, oil giant BP (LON:BP) said net profit fell by two-thirds but the company chose to borrow heavily rather than cut its precious dividend. Gearing rose to a whopping 36%.

5. Fed meeting starts, consumer sentiment and house price data due

The Federal Reserve starts a two-day meeting later, although its conclusions won’t be out until Wednesday.

Sweden’s central bank earlier resisted the temptation to go back to negative interest rates although it hinted that it may have to in the coming months. The krona hit a seven-week high against both the euro and dollar.

The Conference Board’s consumer sentiment index is released at 10 AM, along with the Richmond Fed business survey and the Texas services sector survey. Before that at 8:30 AM the trade balance for March will be out, while the Case-Shiller house price index is released at 9 AM.

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Thursday, April 23rd

1. Jobless claims due; Europe’s PMIs slump again

The U.S. will report its weekly jobless claims data at 8:30 AM ET, the indicator that has been the most current and potent expression of the economic damage inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic.

Analysts polled by Investing.com expect 4.2 million initial claims for last week, down from 5.245 million the week before, and down some 50% from the spike at the start of April. Continuing claims are expected to rise to 16.48 million from 11.98 million last week.

New home sales, due at 10 AM ET, are expected to have fallen 15% on the month in March, while the Kansas City Fed’s business survey at 11 AM is likely to follow the trail blazed by the Empire State manufacturing index and Philly Fed survey earlier in the month.

Earlier, purchasing manager surveys for Europe were even worse than expected, hitting all-time lows across the board as respondents grew less optimistic about the pace of the economic rebound.

2. ECB to lend against junk collateral; sovereign spreads narrow

The European Central Bank loosened its collateral rules to ensure that it can still lend to Italian banks if – as seems likely – the Italian government loses its last investment-grade credit rating. The move led to bank stocks in the eurozone periphery outperforming on Thursday in early trading, while sovereign risk premiums fell.

The ECB’s action came ahead of an EU summit via teleconference later Thursday, which is expected to approve some expansion of borrowing by the European Commission to help fund the region’s recovery from the pandemic. It’s highly unlikely that leaders will approve any joint debt issuance by the euro zone, as wanted by Spain, France and Italy.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel told the Bundestag on Thursday, however, that Germany may have to make “much higher contributions” into the EU budget in future.

3. Stocks set to open higher

U.S. stocks are set to open mixed, consolidating Wednesday’s gains that came on the back of a stabilization in oil prices.

By 6:25 AM ET (1025 GMT), the Dow Jones 30 Futures contract was down 24 points or 0.1% at 23,333 points, while the S&P 500 futures contract was up 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 futures contract was flat.

A conspicuous feature of after-hours earnings releases on Wednesday was the resilience of CSX (NASDAQ:CSX) stock and Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) stock, which held up despite predictable declines in their current business.

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) stock, meanwhile, rebounded 7.6% in premarket trading despite evidence from its Macau business that casinos may face one of the greatest challenges of all businesses in returning to normal after the pandemic.

4. Oil extends rebound on saber-rattling, for now

Oil prices extended their recovery, which started with President Donald Trump’s attempts to inject a bit of geopolitical risk premium on Wednesday with a threatening tweet in the direction of Iran.

Iran, which needs higher oil prices every bit as much as Texas, was happy to play along earlier Thursday, warning of a “swift response” to any U.S. provocation.

By 6:25 AM ET, U.S. crude futures were back at $15.39 a barrel, up 11.7% from late Wednesday, while the international benchmark Brent was up 7.4% at $21.88.

Analysts say that saber-rattling is unlikely to offer any sustained support, given the vast imbalance between supply and demand. Wednesday’s weekly report from the Energy Information Administration showed that spare storage capacity at Cushing, the delivery point for the NYMEX futures contract, is down to less than 18 million barrels. Given that Cushing stocks rose by 4.8 million barrels last week, the risk of prices returning to zero at the next contract expiry does not seem to have gone away.

5. Blackstone, Intel, Eli Lilly to report

Earnings season continues with reports from Blackstone Group, Eli Lilly and Union Pacific all figuring prominently before the bell, and chipmaker Intel, Domino’s Pizza and E-TRADE due after the bell.

Intel’s report comes after some weak data out of South Korea suggesting the recovery for the semiconductor industry will be slow and hard, while Domino’s and E-TRADE have both enjoyed tailwinds from lockdowns and financial market volatility, respectively. E-TRADE rival TD Ameritrade reported late on Wednesday and avoided Interactive Brokers’ mishap with the crude oil expiry earlier this week, but its figures were still hurt by the price war that saw most online brokers cut trading commissions to zero earlier in the year.

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Tuesday, April 21st

1. Oil – Good news and bad news

The good news is – the May futures contract for U.S. crude, which expires later, has shrunk to insignificance as market participants complete the process of rolling futures positions into longer-dated contracts.

The rest of the news is mostly bad. The June futures contract, where the open interest and volume is concentrated, is down 17.5% at $16.86 a barrel as of 5:50 AM ET (0950 GMT), albeit that’s off a low of $11.89. The Brent June contract is down 14.6% at $21.89 a barrel.

In other words, while the extraordinary collapse in U.S. prices was indeed exaggerated by short-term factors, the reality of crushing oversupply (the IEA suggested a drop of 26 million barrels in May from year-earlier levels) is still with us for at least a few weeks.

The American Petroleum Institute’s weekly inventories data for last week are due at 4:30 PM ET (2030 GMT). After Monday’s events, even the 5.7 million barrel rise expected for the government’s data on Wednesday may be a relief to some.

2. Things look dim for Kim

The South Korean won weakened after a CNN report indicating that North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-Un was critically ill after heart surgery earlier this month.

Speculation about Kim’s health had started when he skipped a ceremony last week celebrating the birthday of Kim Il-Sung, the founder of the Communist dynasty that has ruled North Korea since its creation in the 1950s.

The dollar rose as much as 1.8% against the won to its highest in over two weeks, amid fears that a power vacuum could create greater short-term instability. North Korea had fired a series of missiles into the sea off its east coast a week ago, the latest in a series of military maneuvers that observers had initially guessed were aimed at diverting attention away from a coronavirus outbreak.

3. Energy woes weigh on global stocks; U.S. to open lower

U.S. stock markets are set to extend Monday’s losses when they open later, as the volatility in oil prices acts as a sobering reminder of the collapse of economic activity.

By 6:40 AM ET (1040 GMT), the Dow Jones 30 Futures contract was down 357 points, or 1.5%, at 23,151 points, while the S&P 500 futures contract was down 1.1% and the Nasdaq 100 futures was down 0.6%.

European stocks were also lower and even Asian stocks were also dragged lower by developments in energy, as fear about the macro backdrop outweighed any suggestion that cheaper energy was a net benefit to importers.

A rebound in the German ZEW sentiment index to 28.2 from -49.5 in March failed to improve sentiment much, not least because the current conditions sub-index fell to -91.5. The Stoxx 600 was down 2.0%, while the FTSE 100 was down 1.9%.

4. IBM reverts to type; Netflix may do better

IBM returned to its familiar path of falling revenue in the first quarter, thwarting hopes that it had turned a quarter at the end of 2020 with its first annual rise in sales in years.

Revenue at Big Blue fell 3.4%, while earnings per share fell 18%, leading the company to withdraw its guidance for the year in its release after the bell on Monday.

Equifax (NYSE:EFX) joined IBM in pulling its guidance, but its stock still rose in after-hours trading after its first-quarter results beat expectations.

Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) also beat forecasts when it kicked off the day’s deluge of reports. Lockheed and others follow before the bell.

Netflix is arguably the most hotly-awaited set of results on Tuesday, but they’ll come after the close, as will Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG).

5. Deja vu in the euro zone

Eurozone sovereign bond spreads widened again after Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) warned that Italy may be downgraded to junk status if it doesn’t get help from the EU to rebuild its economy after the Covid-19 crisis passes.

Fears that a sharp recession and the lack of an adequate central response from EU and eurozone bodies have caused sovereign bond yield spreads to widen to the most in over a month in the last two sessions. Comments by German Chancellor Angela Merkel that she could envisage an expanded EU budget in the future did nothing to change that.

The spread between Italian and German 10-year bonds widened to 248 basis points, while the Greek spread widened to 264 basis points and the Portuguese one widened to 153. The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0833.

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Thursday, April 16th

1. Jobless claims expected to ease a little

Another 5.1 million Americans are expected to have filed initial claims for unemployment benefits last week, down from 6.65 million the week before. Ongoing claims are expected to rise to 13.5 million from 7.46 million a week earlier, according to analysts polled by Investing.com.

The numbers are due out at 8:30 AM ET (1230 GMT).

Wednesday saw the biggest-ever monthly drop in U.S. retail sales and the sharpest fall in industrial production since 1946, as lockdowns to contain the spread of the Covid-19 virus took effect across the country.

2. Trump to issue new guidelines on reopening the U.S. economy

President Donald Trump said he will issue new guidelines for reopening the economy later Thursday, saying that “the data suggests that, nationwide, we have passed the peak on new cases.”

He pointed to declines in new cases in New York city and New Orleans, while the growth of new cases in Detroit and Denver has flattened out. Trump also noted “progress” in Washington DC, Baltimore and St. Louis.

“New U.S. cases per million will soon be at the levels which prompted easing lockdowns in Italy, Spain and Austria, said Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that business leaders had urged Trump on a conference call not to hurry the reopening of the economy, saying that people will need much greater access to testing before they have confidence to resume normal patterns of working and socializing.

3. Stocks set to open higher; Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) earnings due

U.S. stocks are set to open cautiously higher in response to Trump’s comments after falling on Wednesday in reaction to the drops in retail sales and industrial output.

By 6:35 AM ET (1035 GMT), the Dow Jones 30 Futures contract was up 115 points or 0.5%, while the S&P 500 Futures was up 0.7% and the Nasdaq 100 Futures contract was up 1.0%. Morgan Stanley is set to round off a bank earning season characterized by $25 billion in loan-loss provisions but some stellar numbers for trading revenue.

Havens remain in demand: the dollar index was consolidating above 100 after the U.S. data triggered a fresh bout of safe haven buying of the world’s reserve currency. Treasury bond yields were mostly unchanged after sharp falls on Wednesday. Gold futures were steady above $1,750 an ounce.

4. U.K. extends lockdown as Germany flags gradual reopening

Sterling slipped and U.K. stocks underperformed, as the U.K. extended its lockdown measures for another three weeks.

Meanwhile, Japan extended its state of emergency to nationwide status in response to stubborn increases in new cases across the country. Emergency measures had previously been restricted to Tokyo and a couple of other metropolitan areas.

Germany registered its highest rate of new infections in five days, although daily calculations everywhere have been vulnerable to distortion over the Easter week. Europe’s largest economy on Wednesday said it will reopen smaller shops and all auto dealerships from next week, and intends to partially reopen its schools from May 3rd. Large-scale public events and gatherings will, however, remain banned until the end of August.

5. Oil prices rebound; OPEC report eyed

Crude oil prices rebounded again from the $20 level as traders attempted to guess the pain threshold of key producers.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analysts have argued that anything below $20/bbl is below the cash costs threshold of many producers and thus unlikely to last for long. However, the near-term glut remains acute, with physical cargoes of Russian Urals blend reportedly being quoted at $14 a barrel on Thursday.

Bloomberg reported overnight that the U.S. administration is examining the possibility of paying oil companies not to produce oil. However, that is likely to be blocked by a Democrat-dominated House of Representatives who blocked provisions to spend $3 billion filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last month.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is due to release its monthly oil market report at 7 AM ET, although its forecasts – at least on supply – are likely to tally closely with the calculations that were behind last weekend’s output cut deal.

By 6:35 AM, U.S. crude futures were up 1.8% at $20.23 a barrel, while Brent was up 3.0% at $28.52 a barrel.

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Wednesday, April 15th

1. Airline bailout agreed

The U.S. government agreed to inject some $25 billion into the airline industry to cover payroll costs through the Covid-19 crisis.

American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) are the biggest recipients of aid, receiving $5.8 billion and $5.4 billion respectively. Southwest (NYSE:LUV) will receive $3.2 billion. JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU) and other airlines have also signed up for the aid, most of which is being disbursed as a grant, with the rest coming in the form of low-interest loans and stock warrants.

The conditions attached to the aid mean that the airlines won’t be allowed to furlough staff or cut pay until the end of September, while buybacks and dividends will be banned until September 2021 and executive pay will be limited for another six months beyond that.

2. U.S. data horror show – new episodes out at 8:30 AM ET

More hard data from the U.S. is on the way to flesh out the economic damage from Covid-19 and the associated lockdowns.

Retail sales for March are due at 8:30 AM ET (1230 GMT), while industrial production and manufacturing output will follow at 9:15 AM. As states shut down at different speeds during the month, the data may be hard to interpret holistically, warned Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, in a morning note.

There’s also the New York Empire State Manufacturing index at 8:30, which will shed a light on the state that has – so far – been the worst hit of all in the U.S.

3. Germany expected to extend lockdown another two weeks; India relents

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to agree an extension of Germany’s current lockdown with state governors on a telephone call later.

The news agency Deutsche Presse Agentur reported that Merkel wants to keep Europe’s largest economy locked down until May 3. Some state governors are agitating to at least reopen their schools before then (neighboring Denmark reopened its kindergartens and primary schools Wednesday).

Elsewhere, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed a partial lifting of the lockdown announced earlier this week, acknowledging that the government had no effective way of mitigating its effect on poorer parts of Indian society.

4. Stocks set to open lower; Fed’s Daly strikes pessimistic note

U.S. stock markets are set to open lower on Wednesday, after a rally on Tuesday that threatened to get ahead of economic reality.

By 6:40 AM ET (1040 GMT), the Dow Jones 30 Futures contract was down 422 points or 1.8%, while the S&P 500 Futures contract was down 1.9% and the Nasdaq 100 contract was down 1.4%.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday had forecast a 3% drop in world GDP in 2020 – the worst contraction since the 1930s – including a 5.9% drop in U.S. GDP.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told The Wall Street Journal that she expects the recovery to be uneven and slow.

“I don’t expect a sharp V-shaped recovery, I expect something more like negative quarters of growth throughout 2020, and then a gradual return to positive growth in 2021,” Daly said.

Elsewhere, Covid-19 has all but done for what was likely to be the biggest IPO of 2020. Airbnb said late on Tuesday that it had raised another $1 billion in senior debt, only days after raising the same amount in subordinated debt and equity warrants from private investors. The money didn’t come cheap. The Financial Times reported the company will pay 7.5% for the senior debt, having paid 10% for the more junior tranche last week.

5 Oil tumbles on IEA warning

Oil prices tumbled again after the International Energy Agency warned that the global deal to cut supply, agreed at the weekend, wouldn’t be enough to stop the world running out of storage capacity “within weeks.”

By 6:40 AM ET, U.S. crude futures were trading down 3.5% at $19.41 a barrel, having earlier tested and bounced from the year’s low of $19.27. The international benchmark Brent contract was down 4.2% at $28.37 a barrel.

The IEA said it expects global oil demand to be 29 million barrels a day below year-earlier levels in April, easing to 26 million b/d in May and 15 million b/d in June. If producers cut as expected (the IEA forecasts non-OPEC+ supply to drop by 3.5 million b/d on average this year), and if countries such as China and the U.S. buy for their strategic reserves as agreed, then the physical market could start to draw down record high commercial stocks in the second half, the IEA said.

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Tuesday, April 14th

1. Europe’s big 3 set to extend lockdowns as Spain, Italy start reopening

The European countries worst hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, Italy and Spain, started to lift their restrictions on non-essential business amid signs that the virus has peaked there. Both economies, however, remain largely closed.

Europe’s three biggest economies, however, are set to remain in near total lockdown for at least a couple more weeks, however. France extended its quarantine order through May 11 on Monday, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to do likewise after a teleconference with state governors on Wednesday. The U.K., meanwhile, is preparing to extend its lockdown for another three weeks on Thursday, according to The Times of London.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi also extended India’s lockdown for another two weeks, until May 3, while Russia posted its biggest daily rise in new cases and deaths to date.

2. Trump raises pressures on governors to restart economies

President Donald Trump urged U.S. state governors to speed up their preparations to reopen their economies, giving a veiled warning that he would try to overrule them if they didn’t.

Trump told his daily news briefing that he had “total authority” as regards economic management of the pandemic, but failed to give an answer when challenged that the Constitution grants the presidency no such power explicitly – and that all powers not conferred on the federal government remain with the states.

Two groups of states, on both the east and west coasts of the U.S., have said they will work on coordinating the lifting of lockdown measures.

3. Stocks set to open higher; dollar falls, gold rises

U.S. stocks are set to open higher, reversing the losses they made in relatively thin trade on Monday while European markets were closed.

By 6:15 AM ET (1015 GMT), the Dow Jones 30 Futures contract was up 297 points, or 1.3%, while the S&P 500 Futures contract was up 1.1% and the Nasdaq 100 futures contract was up 1.4%.

European markets reopened higher after the Easter holiday but pared gains to trade mixed by midday in Europe. Chinese and Japanese markets rose broadly, helped by data showing that Chinese exports and imports fell by less than expected in March.

Elsewhere, the dollar index edged down below 100 as markets continued to digest the Fed’s pre-Easter stimulus package. That’s also supporting gold futures, which are on course for their highest close in nearly eight years.

4. Get ready for a wild Q1 earnings season

JPMorgan and pharma giant Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) kick off what could be the weirdest earnings season ever, reflecting the challenges of portraying the state of a business in the middle of the pandemic.

Both companies’ earnings will be largely historical, given that the virus didn’t start to affect the U.S. economy until March, so all eyes will be on their assessment of more short-term developments.

JPMorgan in particular will be scrutinized for how much it sets aside in provisions against loans that have either gone bad already or that are expected to go bad in the coming months. That number will also, inevitably, be a judgment on the efficacy of government and monetary measures to support the economy.

5. Oil prices fall amid doubts over effectiveness of supply cuts

Crude oil prices faltered as the deal cobbled together over the Easter weekend to cut global supply paled in comparison to ongoing reports showing the extent of demand destruction.

OPEC and its allies agreed to cut some 9.7 million barrels a day of output for the next two months, but the methods used to calculate the cut suggested that actual reductions in day-to-day output from current levels would be smaller.

By 6:10 AM ET, U.S. crude futures were down 2.4% at $21.85 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent was down 1.2% at $31.36. The differential between the two blends, at nearly $10 a barrel, has rarely been wider.

Additionally, noted Saxo Bank strategist Ole Hansen, dated Brent (for immediate delivery) is trading $5.15 below the June futures contract. “The OPEC++ deal has done little to alleviate the stress in the market. Also shows that it is oil with its weak demand outlook, not FED pumped stocks, that gives the correct take on the current global economy,” Hansen said.

Day Ahead: Top 3 Things to Watch for April 9

1. Jobless Claims Set to Spike Again

Weekly jobless claims, which have become the go-to economic indicator to capture the latest impact of the virus, come out before the bell tomorrow.

The Labor Department will report on claims for first-time unemployment benefits at 8:30 AM ET (12:30 GMT).

Economists are expecting that claims eased off a little from the huge number the week before, but will still post a rise of 5.25 million, according to forecasts compiled by Investing.com.

Continuing claims are seen coming in at a staggering 8 million, eclipsing the level of more than 6 million seen in 2009 during the financial crisis.

At 10:00 AM ET, the University of Michigan will release its preliminary measure of consumer confidence for April.

The consumer sentiment index is expected to sink to 75 from 89.1 in March.

But economists also think consumers are, like President Donald Trump said, starting to see light at the end of the tunnel. The preliminary April consumer expectations component is seen rising to 88.2 from 79.7 the month before.

The Labor Department will also release the latest numbers on wholesale inflation at 8:30 AM ET.

The producer price index (PPI) is expected to have dropped 0.4% in March. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to have risen 0.1%.

Still, whether all these indicators are as valuable as they were before these unprecedented times is debatable.

“The economy has never changed this fast before,” University of Michigan economics professor Justin Wolfers tweeted. “The unemployment rate is moving as much every two days as it typically moves in a year. So we need economic indicators that can tell us what’s happening across the whole economy, day by day.”

2. OPEC+ to Meet, With Cuts Expected

Oil ministers will be brushing up on their video conference skills tonight.

OPEC+ will hold its virtual meeting Thursday that many (bulls) are hoping will result in production cuts to stabilize the market.

WTI futures spiked 11% in late trading as Algeria revved up expectations, saying “massive” output cuts were on the cards, which could be around 10 million barrels per day.

That added to enthusiasm about Russia planning to offer cuts of 1.6 million barrels, Reuters reported, citing a Kremlin source.

U.S. participation could be the key to whether a deal goes through. But the world’s largest crude producer signaled it will contribute about 1.2 million bpd at most in cuts that would be market driven, not an official reduction.

3. Powell Hosts Webinar

The Federal Reserve minutes from its March meetings out today revealed that in its worst-case scenario the central bank believed that the U.S. economy would not recover from the coronavirus damage until next year.

How much has the Fed’s thinking changed? Investors can hear from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tomorrow when he participates in a webinar at the Brookings Institution think tank at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT).

“In an online-only discussion, Powell will talk about the current state of the economy, the Fed’s response to the crisis, and what lies ahead,” Brookings said.

Powell will take questions from the audience and viewers via e-mail and Twitter (#COVID19Economy).

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Wednesday, April 8th

1. Trump eyes partial restart of economy within weeks

U.S. President Donald Trump talked up the possibility of reopening parts of the U.S. economy, as the Covid-19 outbreak in the country showed mixed signs of slowing down. The number of U.S. cases has doubled to 400,000 in the last week, but grew only 8.1% on Tuesday, a fifth straight daily decline.

“We’re looking at the concept where we open sections of the country and we’re also looking at the concept where you open up everything,” Trump told Sean Hannity of Fox News on Tuesday.

Trump’s top economic advisor Larry Kudlow told Fox earlier that parts of the economy may reopen within four to eight weeks, although it isn’t clear what degree of support the plans could count on among governors and mayors across the country.

Trump’s comments came after another press conference plagued by mixed messaging, in which he first announced, then walked back, a suspension of U.S. contributions to the World Health Organization. The president had criticized the WHO earlier for its “China centric” communication, implying that it helped the Chinese government cover up the true scale of the Covid-19 disaster.

2. Euro zone fails to agree on crisis response funding as recession hits hard

European sovereign bond spreads widened to the most in three weeks after eurozone finance ministers again failed to agree on how to fund the currency union’s fiscal response to the Covid-19 crisis. The meeting was suspended until Thursday, after talks broke down over demands – led by Italy, Spain and France – for joint debt issuance, known as ‘coronabonds’.

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, one of those opposed to coronabonds, told reporters nonetheless that a deal is near.

The news came amid clear evidence of the recession hitting Europe. The Bank of France estimated that French GDP shrank by some 6% in the first quarter, while Germany’s leading economic research institutes forecast that German GDP will shrink by 9.8% in the second quarter, after a 1.9% contraction in the first three months of the year.

The virus, meanwhile, claimed its highest number of victims in Spain in four days, frustrating hopes for a clearer sign of peaking.

3. Stocks set to open mostly higher

U.S. stock markets are set to open mostly higher after a two-day rally ran out of steam in late trading on Tuesday to leave benchmark indices marginally lower on the day.

By 6:35 AM ET (1035 GMT), the Dow Jones 30 Futures contract was up 85 points or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 Futures contract was up 0.4% and the Nasdaq 100 Futures contract was up 0.5%.

The dollar index was 0.2% higher at 100.14, thanks largely to gains against the euro after the Eurogroup’s failure and the alarming GDP headlines from France and Germany. European stock markets were also mostly lower, with the Stoxx 600 falling 1.1%.

4. Oil prices perk up on fresh hope ahead of OPEC+ meeting

Oil prices stayed volatile a day ahead of the OPEC+ meeting at which Russia, Saudi Arabia and others are aiming to agree a cut of around 10 million barrels a day in output. U.S. crude futures were up 3.6% at $24.48 a barrel while Brent futures were up 0.6% at $32.05.

Crude futures had tumbled late on Tuesday amid pessimism that even a 10 million barrel-a-day cut would not fix an oversupply problem, given that global demand has fallen by even more.

The U.S. government’s weekly report on oil stocks is due at 10:30 AM ET and is likely to corroborate – broadly – another huge rise in stocks reported on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute. The 11.9 million barrel rise reported by the API was above market forecast for a 9.3 million barrel increase in official stocks.

Separately on Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration cut its forecast for U.S. oil output by 1.2 million barrels a day for 2020, and by 1.6 million barrels a day for 2021. The U.S. government will likely argue that the projections are proof that it is sharing the burden of output discipline, when G20 energy ministers attempt to wrap up a binding deal on Friday.

5. And finally, China lifts Wuhan lockdown; mass exodus expected

After 10 weeks, China ended the lockdown on Wuhan, the city where the virus first emerged. Reports suggested a mass exodus from the city was likely in the near term.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan finally declared a state of emergency after an interrupted debate in its parliament, something that paves the way for bigger economic support packages from Tokyo.

South Korea, meanwhile, unveiled economic support measures worth some $45 billion, including cheap loans for exporters. The dollar rose 0.1% against the yen and 0.5% against the won.

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Tuesday, April 7th

1. Gold hits highest since 2020

Gold prices hit their highest in nearly eight years, as a wave of money continued to flood into exchange-traded funds, bars and coins on expectations of a prolonged period of low or negative interest rates.

Gold futures for delivery on the Comex exchange hit a high of $1,742.20 a troy ounce overnight before retracing to hold just above $1,702 an ounce by 6:35 AM ET (1035 GMT). The premium over spot gold prices in London widened to almost $50 an ounce, amid further reports of trouble in sourcing enough physical gold to cover all the claims of U.S.-registered ETFs.

The latest surge came on the back of reports on Monday that the U.S. is preparing a fourth economic support package that could be worth around $1.4 trillion.

The sharp widening of budget deficits in the U.S. and Europe to fund the response to the Covid-19 crisis has encouraged heavy betting on currency debasement – even though most economists agree that the near-term effect of the crisis is more likely to be deflationary, rather than inflationary.

2. Oil rises further on hopes of output restraint deal

Crude oil prices rebounded again amid hopes that the world’s major producers will somehow cobble together an agreement to cut supply at a virtual meeting on Thursday. U.S. crude futures rose 3.1% to $26.91 a barrel, while Brent rose 2.4% to $33.83.

Reuters quoted sources within the OPEC+ format (which includes Russia) as saying that an agreement is likely, as long as other countries – most of all, the U.S. – join in.

Other reports suggested that the OPEC+ countries also want cuts from Canada and Brazil.

The inability of the U.S. government to impose a nationwide output cut has led some analysts to suspect that the deal will aim to target a price that is still low enough to squeeze marginal U.S. shale producers into bankruptcy. Some have observed that the current use of drilling rigs is consistent with a drop in U.S. production of 1 million barrels a day by the third quarter.

A meeting of G20 energy, which would include all the countries relevant to the discussion except Norway, is scheduled for Friday.

3. Stocks set to open higher as U.S. support package, European virus data lift spirits

U.S. stocks are set to open markedly higher again, supported by the reports of a fourth economic support package that broke in the U.S. afternoon on Monday.

The news, which helped to allay doubts about holes in the packages announced so far, drove one of the biggest ever rallies in the Dow Jones Industrials on Monday, pushing all the benchmark indices over 7% higher.

By 6:35 AM ET, the Dow Jones 30 Futures was up 804 points, or 3.6%, while the S&P 500 futures contract was up 3.1% and the Nasdaq 100 futures contract was up 2.9%.

European and Asian markets have also rallied, taking their lead from the U.S. and from increasing data points in Europe that suggest the Covid-19 epidemic is peaking. Spain posted four straight days of declining deaths, while Italy and Germany announced further falls in new infections, and Denmark joined Austria in planning to lift some of its lockdown restrictions.

4. Johnson remains in intensive care

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains stable and conscious in intensive care, after being hospitalized on Sunday evening in London.

Against a backdrop of growing doubt about the reliability of information being provided by the government Cabinet Minister Michael Gove insisted on Tuesday that the Prime Minister was not on a ventilator and promised a full statement in case his situation gets any worse.

Sterling and U.K. stocks were equally unfussed by the episode, joining in a broad risk-on rally in European markets. European Union finance ministers are due to hold another conference call about their pandemic response later Tuesday.

5. Fed moves to ease EM squeeze with $60 billion repo line to Indonesia

The Federal Reserve agreed to provide a $60 billion repo line to Indonesia, whose financial markets have suffered some of the worst stress in the emerging world as the Covid-19 virus has spread across one of Asia’s most important economies.

The country has been criticized for its relatively low level of testing for Covid-19 among its population of over 200 million. The official death toll of 221 is widely believed to understate the actual number (as in many countries, due to the exclusion of victims who do not die in hospitals).

The dollar had risen by some 20% against the Indonesian rupiah since the virus exploded in January. It has made similar, if less dramatic gains against many other emerging currencies, as markets price in a sudden stop of capital flows due to the looming recession. According to data from the International Institute for Finance in Washington, investors pulled some $83 billion from emerging markets in March alone.

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    FinMaxFX

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